ISLAMABAD: As global temperatures rise due to continued fossil fuel use, Pakistan is expected to face a significant increase in mortality, with projections indicating an additional 51 deaths per 100,000 people by 2050. Low- and middle-income countries are anticipated to account for 90 per cent of these premature deaths linked to climate change.
A study by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago using highly localised global data presents some of the first projections aimed at guiding adaptation planning for temperature-related mortality.
“Ten times more people are projected to die each year in lower-income countries (about 391,000 people) than in higher-income countries (about 39,000 people) due to shifting temperatures, despite being expected to have roughly equal populations,” the study noted, highlighting the unequal burden on the Global South.
Pakistan, along with Burkina Faso, is expected to be among the hardest-hit countries. Urban areas in Pakistan are projected to suffer the most severe impacts.
“While warm, wealthier cities like Phoenix and Madrid are projected to lose an additional 600 and 525 lives each year, respectively, due to a warming climate, Faisalabad, Pakistan, will lose an additional 9,400 lives,” the study revealed.
Eight major Pakistani cities Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Lahore, Peshawar, Hyderabad, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad rank among 15 urban centres in low- and middle-income countries expected to see the largest increases in mortality rates by 2050 compared to 2001–2010 levels. Apart from Khulna in Bangladesh, most cities on the list are in Africa.
The projected death toll from heat in Pakistan is expected to surpass current mortality rates associated with diseases such as tuberculosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and stroke.
“When considering the 301 cities across the globe that we project to see a net increase in temperature-related deaths in 2050, more than 100,000 additional lives will be lost annually and approximately one in three of those deaths will occur in Pakistani cities,” the study warned.
A key factor behind these projections is the lack of sufficient adaptation funding. In Pakistan’s FY25–26 budget, only Rs85 billion was allocated for adaptation, much of it directed toward agriculture.
The study also found that 95 cities across Asia are expected to see increases in temperature-related mortality of at least 10 deaths per 100,000 people, including nine in Pakistan. Other affected countries include China, Japan, Iran, Bangladesh, and Saudi Arabia.
Globally, lower-income countries are projected to experience an increase of about eight deaths per 100,000 people, while higher-income countries may actually see a decrease of around four deaths per 100,000.
“While lower income (i.e. low- and lower middle-income) and higher income (i.e. upper middle- and high-income) countries will have approximately equal populations in 2050 (52 per cent and 48pc of global population, respectively), 10 times more people are projected to die each year in lower-income countries due to a warmer climate than in higher income countries (approximately 391,000 and 39,000 people, respectively).”
The research underscores that heat-related mortality is an “inequitable threat” that can be reduced through better policies and increased financial support for adaptation.
For example, economic growth alone could lower global climate-related mortality by around nine deaths per 100,000 people an effect comparable to eliminating suicides worldwide.
“In other words, without economic growth, there would be seven times more temperature-related deaths globally,” the study noted.
The report stresses that even if global climate targets are met and net-zero emissions are achieved, warming will persist for decades, making adaptation essential.
“Efforts to mitigate climate change must therefore be coupled with concerted action to help society adapt to the warming that is already underway to prevent its worst impacts,” it added.
Tamma Carleton of the Climate Impact Lab emphasised the importance of strategic investment in adaptation: “The stakes are too high for the past to be the prologue. Correctly choosing where to spend limited dollars on adaptations could have massive impacts on who lives and who dies.”
Dr Mariam Saleh Khan, a climate scientist based in Islamabad, warned that humid heat in parts of Pakistan could exceed human survivability thresholds, affecting productivity as well as physical and mental health.
“Keeping in mind that Pakistan is one of the fastest urbanising countries in South Asia, the current projections of CIL should still be considered lower estimates,” she said, adding that the country lacks a well-prepared response plan.
She noted that while some heat action plans were introduced after the 2022 heatwaves, they are largely basic advisories rather than scientifically robust strategies. She also criticised the National Adaptation Plan 2023 for insufficient attention to wet-bulb temperature.
“Even in the very celebrated NAP, wet-bulb temperature (an indicator used to measure humid heat) is mentioned only once, and that also with a wrong scientific definition/perception,” she claimed, warning of serious implications for sectors like agriculture and construction. She also pointed out the absence of a proper system to record heat-related deaths.
Highlighting the financial dimension, researcher Ammara Aslam stressed that adaptation costs will keep rising without strong mitigation efforts.
“According to UNEP’s latest adaptation gap report (2025), the annual adaptation finance requirement for the developing world is $365bn … and these costs would continue to rise at an exponentially unsustainable rate in a continuously warming world,” she said, adding that the figure could reach $500bn.
She noted that adaptation funding is declining globally, falling from $28bn in 2022 to $26bn in 2023, while Pakistan alone may require $152bn by 2030.
“Every delay in cutting greenhouse emissions today compounds the interest on a debt of resilience that the developing and vulnerable countries cannot shoulder even now,” she said.
According to the World Bank, Pakistan would need $196bn for deep decarbonisation by 2030 an investment that could significantly reduce future adaptation costs if implemented effectively.
