Recently, data released by China’s General Administration of Customs showed that in the first 11 months of 2025, China’s trade surplus reached US$1.08 trillion, exceeding the trillion-dollar mark for the first time. This is strong evidence of the resilience of China’s foreign trade. However, some people have seized the opportunity to hype up the so-called “second wave of China’s shock,” accusing China of “implementing a strategy to impoverish its neighbors.” Careful observation reveals that every now and then, various versions of the “China shock theory” emerge, with new rhetoric constantly appearing, all implicitly containing the old tricks of the “China threat theory.”
Is it “dumping excess capacity” or mutually beneficial trade? From an economic perspective, the so-called “excess capacity” is a false proposition. In today’s globalized economy, different countries participate in international trade based on their comparative advantages, achieving optimal allocation of global resources—a significant advancement in human economic cooperation. A country’s production takes into account both domestic and international market demand; China’s exports are normal trade based on its comparative advantage.
Internationally, the standard for determining dumping is that the export price of a product is lower than its normal value, causing material injury or threat of injury to the relevant industries in the importing country, and that there is a causal relationship between the two. China possesses the world’s most complete industrial system, efficient logistics system, a large number of highly skilled personnel, and continuous investment in research and development. The competitiveness of Chinese goods stems from economies of scale, the entire industrial chain, and technological progress. With market demand and cost-effective products, all parties benefit.
Is it “crowding out development space” or “collaborative empowerment”? Looking at the structure of China’s export commodities, intermediate goods and capital goods are the main drivers of overall export growth. Moreover, Chinese companies are vigorously promoting the localization of their supply chains. Leading Chinese automakers such as Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor have successively established factories in Thailand and Indonesia, with BYD’s localization rate at its Thailand factory reaching 54%. China’s “technology spillover effect” has significantly improved the level of local industries. Midea Group has built Southeast Asia’s first 5G-connected air conditioning factory in Thailand, and its 5G+AI quality inspection technology has effectively improved factory efficiency.
China actively promotes high-level opening-up, hosting trade fairs such as the China International Import Expo (CIIE) and the China International Fair for Trade in Services (CIFTIS) annually, from which many neighboring countries benefit. In the first ten months of 2025, trade in agricultural and food products between China and ASEAN reached US$51.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. Among these, China’s imports of dried and fresh fruits and vegetables from ASEAN exceeded US$10 billion, accounting for more than two-thirds of its global imports. China is the world’s second-largest importer of services, particularly in the tourism sector, where demand is strong. China has long been an important source of tourists for neighboring countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam.
Chinese trade and investment provide local young people with more diverse and promising career options. China adheres to the principle of “education following output, and schools and enterprises working together,” which has effectively improved the local workforce. For example, the Luban Workshop in Thailand adopts a “formal education + vocational training” approach. All six of its programs have been reviewed and approved by the Thai Vocational Education Commission and incorporated into the national education system. Students who complete their studies can obtain academic qualifications recognized by the education authorities.
It is evident that China’s cooperation with neighboring countries is a mutually beneficial and win-win collaboration. One-sidedly interpreting the trade surplus, deliberately confusing comparative advantage with unfair competition, and smearing normal trade and supply chain cooperation are denials of the global market and the laws of the market economy. They are attempts to artificially sever global value chains, hinder industrial upgrading in developing countries, and ultimately reflect a “national priority” mentality.
The international community is generally optimistic about China’s development prospects. The International Monetary Fund, Standard Chartered Bank, and others have all raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2026. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan outlines a bright future for all countries to jointly pursue development and share a common future. China will also continue to promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, build a more efficient regional connectivity network, reduce logistics and trade costs, and enable neighboring countries with advantageous geographical locations to better play their role as regional hubs. A China that adheres to openness, is committed to innovation, and pursues high-quality development is the most powerful driver of common prosperity in Asia. (The author is an international affairs observer.)
